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English waiting times rose sharply in December, driven by the growing waiting list and winter pressures. And there was a sharp drop in the proportion of local hospital services achieving the 18 week target.
The Royal College of Surgeons suggest elective waiting times have passed a tipping point nationally. I suggest they may instead have succumbed to the national obsession with targets.
Waiting times were steady in November, and other indicators followed the usual post-2012 pattern. Which means things are still getting steadily worse.
An obsession with percentages, instead of waiting times, shows how waiting list management revolves around the target instead of patients' needs.
Since the incomplete pathways target was first met in 2012, English waiting times have been creeping up at about half a week per year. Now they're growing three times faster.
Managing the 18 week waiting times target directly? That risks a loss of control if the waiting list gets too big and the target becomes unsustainable.
Expect 20 week RTT waits and 4 million patients on the waiting list in 2017, rising to 21 week waits in 2018, and so on indefinitely until the NHS in England starts keeping up with demand.
We've run the published RTT data through Gooroo Planner, and produced detailed trajectories for trusts and specialties right across England for the next two years. Here they all are. You're welcome.
Elective waits passed the 19 week mark, all surgical specialties are now breaching, and only 69 per cent of local specialties are within target. As the waiting list grows this is only going to get worse.
Are Board performance reports intended to stimulate minds, or put them to sleep? A powerful visualisation can almost make change inevitable.