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The English waiting list and waiting times fell in January in better-than-expected figures. However the NHS remains in serious breach of the 18 week standard, and on recent trends things are still expected to get worse.
We are consulting on a possible change to the way Gooroo Planner calculates waiting times, with the aim of bridging the gap between actual and calculated waiting times. But we're not sure that the pros outweigh the cons.
Despite the doom and gloom about NHS performance, elective waiting times are actually pretty good. The trouble is, they're heading in the wrong direction.
English waiting times rose sharply in December, driven by the growing waiting list and winter pressures. And there was a sharp drop in the proportion of local hospital services achieving the 18 week target.
The Royal College of Surgeons suggest elective waiting times have passed a tipping point nationally. I suggest they may instead have succumbed to the national obsession with targets.
Waiting times were steady in November, and other indicators followed the usual post-2012 pattern. Which means things are still getting steadily worse.
An obsession with percentages, instead of waiting times, shows how waiting list management revolves around the target instead of patients' needs.
Since the incomplete pathways target was first met in 2012, English waiting times have been creeping up at about half a week per year. Now they're growing three times faster.
Managing the 18 week waiting times target directly? That risks a loss of control if the waiting list gets too big and the target becomes unsustainable.
Expect 20 week RTT waits and 4 million patients on the waiting list in 2017, rising to 21 week waits in 2018, and so on indefinitely until the NHS in England starts keeping up with demand.