We need to talk about referral-to-treatment waiting times
Referral-to-treatment waiting times were a tremendous success, but their future is now in doubt. The time has come to ask: is there a better alternative?
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Referral-to-treatment waiting times were a tremendous success, but their future is now in doubt. The time has come to ask: is there a better alternative?
Yet another large trust stopped reporting its referral-to-treatment data, which clouded the picture for the latest November figures and raised non-reported waiting lists to a new record. But overall the waiting time picture was 'steady as she goes', despite continued low rates of patients being admitted from the waiting list.
You could model follow-up outpatients directly, as waiting list services within complex clinical pathways. But setting the data up is rather fiddly, and there is a more straightforward approach.
Yet another trust stopped reporting its waiting list data in October, bringing the estimated number of missing patients to its highest ever level.
NHS England's priorities point to a patient safety approach on waiting times. But will the government override them in pursuit of targets?
"We can't do everything on that budget", cried NHS England. "Well you've got to", replied the Secretary of State.
A long-waits forecast that was accurate down to the last patient? Yes, and two months running too. We'd be the first to admit there was a lot of luck in it. But you have to be shooting pretty straight to get that lucky...
With some guesses about the costs per case, I reckon recovering 18 weeks sustainably might cost £2.1 billion next year and £350 million the year after, if other pressures and enough mainstream capacity are funded. Or £4.2 billion next year and £1 billion the year after, if austerity continues.
September's admission rate was sharply down on recent years. However waiting list management recovered, enabling a slight improvement in waiting times to 20.3 weeks. That's still well above 18 weeks though, and the trend remains up.
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