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You could model follow-up outpatients directly, as waiting list services within complex clinical pathways. But setting the data up is rather fiddly, and there is a more straightforward approach.
Yet another trust stopped reporting its waiting list data in October, bringing the estimated number of missing patients to its highest ever level.
NHS England's priorities point to a patient safety approach on waiting times. But will the government override them in pursuit of targets?
"We can't do everything on that budget", cried NHS England. "Well you've got to", replied the Secretary of State.
A long-waits forecast that was accurate down to the last patient? Yes, and two months running too. We'd be the first to admit there was a lot of luck in it. But you have to be shooting pretty straight to get that lucky...
With some guesses about the costs per case, I reckon recovering 18 weeks sustainably might cost £2.1 billion next year and £350 million the year after, if other pressures and enough mainstream capacity are funded. Or £4.2 billion next year and £1 billion the year after, if austerity continues.
September's admission rate was sharply down on recent years. However waiting list management recovered, enabling a slight improvement in waiting times to 20.3 weeks. That's still well above 18 weeks though, and the trend remains up.
Are your cancer pathways designed to breach the targets? Why not check, using our new monthly cancer control charts? Based on data published by NHS England they analyse whether your cancer pathways are in control, and how often they are expected to breach, so you know what action you need to take.
The 4-hour A&E target is the highest profile performance target in the English NHS. We analyse every Trust's performance each month using control charts, and this is an introduction.
When financial penalties were lifted from referral-to-treatment waiting times back in March, I said that looser waiting list management might be the first clear sign that focus on this NHS Constitution right was being lost. This has now happened.